The experts speak
Xavier Marchand – Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Despite disruption to motorway traffic in France at the end of 2018, VINCI posted growth of over 8%. This shows the success of its diversification strategy and its capacity to absorb shocks in the economic environment. The other key point, to my mind, is the very robust generation of cash flow which, at €3.2 billion, was up more than 600 million relative to 2018. Following the significant wave of acquisitions over recent years, we expect the focus in 2019 to be on integrating the newly acquired businesses. In an uncertain market with more moderate growth prospects, we appreciate VINCI’s profile, where 70% of profit comes from defensive business activities related to concessions. We believe that the dynamic of the Contracting businesses will continue to improve, in particular through the upturn in Africa and better operating efficiency in France.
Nicolas Mora - analyst, Morgan Stanley
The 2018 results reflect robust business underlying all the Group’s activities, despite the end of the year being marred somewhat for VINCI Autoroutes by the consequences of the gilets jaunes movement. Most divisions consolidated their lead on their competitors by combining revenue and margin growth. We believe we’ll see a more uncertain macro-environment in 2019. We expect the upward trend in Contracting’s volumes in France to be more moderate, with the international arena picking up the slack, supported by the good order intake of recent months. Margins should benefit from the restructuring effort in construction and from Eurovia’s acquisitions. In Concessions, we expect passenger numbers to slow down even though VINCI Airports will continue to outperform most of its European competitors, while traffic at VINCI Autoroutes should bounce back in the second part of the year. VINCI remains out Top Pick of all European infrastructure companies, with a target share price of €103. We believe the positive outlook for the Group and its medium-term cash generation capacity are underestimated by the market.
Olivier Dauzat – deputy editor-in-chief, Le Revenu
The major building and civil engineering group has once again demonstrated the soundness of its integrated concession-construction business model. In 2018, its revenue increased 8.1% to €43.5 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent rose to €3 billion, up 8.6% and setting a new record for VINCI. All the Contracting business lines improved their margins. In Concessions, the decline in VINCI Autoroutes’ traffic, caused by the gilets jaunes crisis at the end of the year, was offset by growth in the airport sector. The Group’s portfolio of airports handled over 195 million passengers last year, a 6.8% increase on 2017. For 2019, senior management is projecting further growth in revenue and income. Contracting’s order books are holding at a good level.
Raymond Quenin - VINCI shareholder for more than 10 years
VINCI is my first line of direct shareholdings. For me, it is therefore one of the main shares in my portfolio, and one that I expect to give a sufficient pay-out and good visibility over time. What I like about VINCI is its diversification policy in its business activities and opportunities, while avoiding the risks of being spread too thin on the ground and poorly assessed profitability in new projects.
Pierre Château - VINCI shareholder since 2005
I’ve always kept my VINCI shares because it’s a safe investment, with a constant dividend policy. I’m also a member of the Shareholders’ Club, so I’m kept up to date with the Group’s news. I find VINCI’s strategy clear and its business model effective. That’s all very reassuring to me.
François Jager - shareholder
I’ve been a VINCI shareholder for 20 years. I like the fact that it has the ability to develop a long-term vision, as shown by its recent diversification. When the Group withdraws from a sector, it’s because it has seen the end of a cycle and it believes it can better use its human and financial resources. I also like its civic engagement and Manifesto.
I would like the government to meet the contractual commitments it made to motorway concession companies, which enabled it to make significant savings by delegating billions of euros of investments. As a motorway user, I find them very expensive but remarkably well equipped. The scheduled toll increases appeared relatively minor to me compared with those of other public services. More importantly, it all comes under a predictable contract signed with the government. I don’t think it’s sensible to reproach private companies for making money by honouring their contracts.
Philippe Dunoyer - VINCI shareholder for 10 years and member of the Individual Shareholders’ Club
The Group is reliable and reassuring thanks to its integrated business model and its prudent, efficient management. The annual results are good, better even than projections. The VINCI share is a portfolio cornerstone because there are very few bumps along the way on the stock market. The strategic swerve towards airports doesn’t scare me because it’s a strong growth sector.