| Risk identification | Risk management procedures |
|---|---|
|
Before the contract is signed
Possible consequences:
|
Before the contract is signed
Possible consequences:
Risk management procedures
|
|
After the contract is signed
Possible consequences:
|
After the contract is signed
Possible consequences:
Risk management procedures
|
The risks of a concession contract, whose duration can vary from a few years to several decades, are carefully evaluated before bid submission during the design phase, which is generally much longer than it is in the Energy and Construction businesses, and through the competitive bidding process with the contracting authority.
The main risks relating to the operation of concession assets involve changes in traffic or passenger numbers, the level of toll charges and collection, as well as operating, maintenance and repair costs.
Traffic levels on motorway concessions are correlated to economic activity and are generally affected by changing fuel prices and/or potential fuel shortages. Experience has shown that social incidents can also disrupt concession operation and lead to acts of vandalism, as was the case at the end of 2018 and the start of 2019 with the “yellow vests” movement in France. Price increases are determined by contractual formulas, the main aim of which is to offset at least some of the inflation risk.
For airport concessions, passenger numbers may be impacted by the macroeconomic situation or by a variety of other events, including natural disasters or severe weather, as well as terrorist attacks or threats. Rates are set in accordance with the regulation applicable to the contract, which may or may not make reference to a return on invested capital.
Lastly, a health crisis like the one caused by Covid-19 could also have a very significant impact on traffic levels for transport infrastructure concessions, due to travel restrictions. Similarly, a major geopolitical crisis could cause flights to and from countries on which sanctions have been imposed to be prohibited. This is currently the case with respect to Russia.
For all concession infrastructure under operation, provisions are taken to cover the cost of renovating installations – particularly motorway road surfaces and airport runways – as well as the cost of building maintenance, based on maintenance expense plans (see Note H.19.3 to the consolidated financial statements, pages 337 to 338).