D. Risk factors and management procedures
This chapter details the principal risks to which the VINCI Group’s various activities are exposed as well as changes in the year under review, which are summarised in the table opposite.
The level of criticality of each of these risks (high, intermediate or moderate) was determined on the basis of its estimated probability of occurrence and the anticipated extent of its net impact on the Group, taking into account risk management procedures already in place. In addition, it should be noted that, as part of the implementation of the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), non-financial risks are also handled through the double materiality assessment carried out as the basis for the disclosures in the Group’s sustainability report (chapter E of this Report of the Board of Directors).
Several political, geopolitical, trade-related and technological events and developments contributed to a climate of uncertainty in 2025, chief among them the following:
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France:
- Political instability, which had been the order of the day in France since President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024, continued into 2025, and the situation worsened following the resignation of Prime Minister François Bayrou in September. The climate of uncertainty and the tense budget discussions in the French parliament weighed on investor confidence. Doubtful over the country’s ability to put itself on a lasting path toward reducing its deficit, the agencies Fitch and S&P Global both downgraded the country’s credit rating. Against this rather bleak backdrop, France’s borrowing costs climbed higher in the second half of 2025.
- Tax uncertainty. Budget discussions concerning new corporate tax rate increases once again weighed on the confidence of investors, entrepreneurs and households.
- Level of public and private debt worldwide. Rising public debt worldwide, amid growing budget deficits in many countries (including the United States, France and the United Kingdom), stoked concern, accentuating upward pressure on yields at the long end of the curve. In this context, the various central banks will again play a key role in 2026. In the United States, a series of corporate bankruptcies generated concerns around private credit quality and the solvency of lower quality borrowers. Pressures in this sector might affect economic growth.
- World trade balances. Given the new paradigm for international trade, due to the introduction of tariffs in the United States, business communities became nervous, worried that the world economy would continue its downward spiral.
- Geopolitical tensions. The ongoing and nearly four-year conflict in Ukraine was a worrisome feature of 2025. Despite several attempts by the United States to draw up a peace plan, the possibility and conditions for a ceasefire are still uncertain. In Europe, this situation has led to historic rises in defence spending by several countries. In this context, Germany announced an unprecedented investment plan for the defence sector. Meanwhile, tensions approached the breaking point in June when Israel and the United States launched a series of strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme, ballistic missile sites and energy facilities. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran, followed by the fragile peace plan for Gaza, returned the region to a state of relative calm.
- Technological advances. The meteoric rise of artificial intelligence – a vector of innovation and competitiveness – was the dominant theme shaping the economic and financial landscape during the year, buoyed by several announcements of very sizeable deals. However, by the end of the year, this euphoria gave way to uncertainties around the risk of an AI bubble due to excessively high company valuations and questions about the profitability of massive investments and their financing via debt. Should this bubble burst, the financial markets would be hit by a wave of considerable instability. Given the infiltration of AI across all industry sectors, such a shock could also feed through to the world economy.
Despite this turbulent environment, the VINCI Group’s overall performance in 2025 was very solid, in spite of the much harsher tax provisions relating to company profits introduced in France in 2025. This performance illustrates once again the strength of the Group’s multi-local business model and its highly decentralised organisational structure as well as its ability to adapt rapidly to market developments.
Although its risk profile has remained for the most part unchanged, the Group has noted upward trends in three risk categories over the past year:
Operational risks
- Energy Solutions and Construction businesses: Budgetary constraints and steep deficits in several countries, including France, still represent a risk over the short and medium term with respect to the amounts to be set aside for public procurement, except for sectors driven by a number of underlying trends, among them the need for electrification, nuclear, sovereignty and defence, and healthcare, in relation to which several Group companies are well positioned. Additionally, challenges may arise in the management of supply chains, disrupted by the trade war pitting the United States against China in particular (tariff increases, persistent inflation, energy dependency, etc.). Lastly, the potential bursting of the AI bubble is also contributing to uncertainty weighing on businesses worldwide, on top of the political, geopolitical and macroeconomic factors described above. Nevertheless, the Group has considerable experience in handling this type of uncertainty, with its decentralised model ensuring its subsidiaries’ agility and their ability to make rapid structural adjustments. Its geographic diversification and its business mix are also advantages in weathering the cyclical difficulties encountered in some markets.
- Concessions business: Traffic levels and passenger numbers, which are directly correlated with local, regional or global economic growth (depending on the features specific to each asset), may be adversely affected over the short or medium term by the aforementioned economic uncertainties. In addition, the pursuit of additional receipts by some governments to remedy their budget situations may lead them to amend – in a unilateral fashion and not always with respect for the spirit and the letter of concession contracts – tax provisions and/or regulations relating to assets under concession. The Group and its affected subsidiaries remain determined to defend their interests and enforce their rights through legal proceedings, if necessary.
